Estimation

Full rules

1. Overview
2. The cards
3. Setup
4. A deal step by step
5. Speed deals (14 to 18)
6. Scoring
7. Winning the game
8. Tips for beginners
9. Variants

Overview

Estimation is a trick-taking game for four players, each playing alone. It is one of the most popular card games in Egypt and is widely played across the Levant and the Gulf, mostly in apps. In each deal the players first bid for the right to choose trumps; then everyone estimates how many tricks they will win. Only an exact estimate scores – one trick too many is as bad as one too few. After 18 deals the highest total wins.

• Players: exactly 4, each playing for themselves.
• You need: one standard 52-card deck without jokers, and paper and pen for the score.

The cards

In every suit the cards rank from high to low: A K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2. Cards have no point values – only the number of tricks counts.

A trick is one round in which each player plays one card face up; the best card wins all four. The trump suit is the strongest suit in a deal: any trump beats any card of another suit. A deal can also be played in no trumps (Arabic players often say sans).

For bidding, the trump choices rank from high to low: no trumps, ♠, ♥, ♦, ♣.

Setup

Dealing and play go anticlockwise (to the right).

1. Dealer: choose the first dealer at random. After each deal the player on the dealer's right deals next.
2. Deal: the dealer shuffles, the player on the right cuts, and the dealer deals all 52 cards one at a time, face down. Everyone has 13 cards.
3. Avoid: a player who has no card at all of some suit must announce "avoid" before the bidding – it only informs the others and changes no rule.

A deal step by step

Deals 1 to 13 have four steps: dash calls, bidding, estimates, play. Deals 14 to 18 are speed deals without bidding (see below).

1. Dash calls

Before the bidding, any player may make a dash call: a promise to win no tricks at all, whatever the trumps will be. At most two players may make a dash call in one deal. A dash caller takes no part in the bidding and the estimates; their estimate is simply 0.

2. Bidding for trumps

A bid is a number of tricks – at least 4 – together with a trump suit or no trumps, e.g. "5 hearts" or "6 no trumps".

1. The player on the dealer's right speaks first, then the others in turn to the right.
2. At your turn, bid higher than the last bid or pass. A bid is higher if it names more tricks, or the same number in a higher trump choice ("5 spades" beats "5 hearts").
3. Once you have passed, you are out of the bidding for this deal.
4. When everyone else has passed, the last bidder is the caller. Their bid decides the trumps, and its number is their estimate.

Example: Ben bids 4 clubs, Carla 4 hearts, Dan passes, Anna 5 diamonds, Ben passes, Carla 5 spades, Anna passes. Carla is the caller: spades are trumps, and she must win exactly 5 tricks.

If nobody bids, the cards are thrown in without a score, the next player deals, and the next deal counts double.

3. Estimates

Now the other players, starting with the one on the caller's right and going round to the right, each say how many tricks they will win – from 0 up to the caller's number, never more.

• With: an estimate equal to the caller's number. This player scores like the caller.
• Not 13: the last player to estimate may not make the four estimates add up to exactly 13. So at least one player is sure to miss.
• Over and under: if the estimates add up to more than 13, the deal is over – there are not enough tricks for everyone. If they add up to less, it is under – someone will get tricks they don't want.
• Risk: if the last player's estimate makes the total miss 13 by 2 or more (15 or more, or 11 or fewer), that player is playing a risk. Missing by 4 or more is a double risk, by 6 or more a triple risk.

Example: Carla is caller with 5 spades. Dan estimates 3, Anna 5 (a With). That makes 13 so far, so Ben, the last, may not say 0. He says 2: the total is 15 – an over deal, and Ben plays a risk.

4. Playing the tricks

1. The caller leads – plays the first card – to the first trick.
2. The others each play one card in turn to the right. You must follow suit – play a card of the suit that was led – if you can. If you can't, play any card: a trump or a card of another suit.
3. Who wins: the highest trump in the trick; if there is no trump (or the deal is in no trumps), the highest card of the suit led.
4. The winner takes the trick and leads to the next one.

Each player keeps their own tricks in front of them, so everyone can see how the estimates are going.

Speed deals (14 to 18)

The last five deals have fixed trumps and no bidding:

Dash calls are made as usual. Then everyone estimates in turn, starting with the dealer's right; the last player may not make the total 13. The first player to give the highest estimate counts as the caller: they lead and score as the caller, and anyone who later gives the same number is a With.

Super call: a player who expects at least 8 tricks may instead bid them with a trump suit of their choice. That bid overrides the fixed trumps, and this player is the caller.

Scoring

For every player compare tricks won with the estimate.

Exact – you won exactly as many tricks as you estimated:

• 10 points + 1 per trick won,
• +10 if you are the caller or a With,
• +10 if you are the only player who got it exact,
• +10 for a risk (+20 double risk, +30 triple risk).

Missed – you won more or fewer tricks:

• −1 per trick too many or too few,
• −10 if you are the caller or a With,
• −10 if you are the only player who missed,
• −10 for a risk (−20 double, −30 triple).

Dash call – instead of all of the above: +25 if you won no trick in an over deal, +33 in an under deal; −25 or −33 if you won a trick.

Nobody exact: if all four players miss, nobody scores and the next deal counts double. If that happens again, the next deal counts four times.

Example: Carla (caller, 5 spades) wins 5 tricks: 10 + 5 + 10 = 25. Dan estimated 3 but wins 4: −1 = −1. Anna (With, 5) wins only 2: −3 − 10 = −13. Ben (risk, 2) wins 2: 10 + 2 + 10 = 22. Two players were exact, so there is no bonus for being the only one.

Winning the game

After 18 deals the player with the highest total wins; equal totals share the win. Scores can go below zero.

Tips for beginners

• Count sure tricks before you bid: Aces, protected Kings and long trumps. A bid only pays off if you can make it exactly – don't outbid just to choose trumps.
• In an over deal, grab your tricks early; there aren't enough for everyone. In an under deal, get rid of high cards before they win unwanted tricks.
• Watch the others' estimates during play: stop a rival's last trick, or dump one on a player who already has enough.
• Dash calls need a hand of low cards in every suit; a single Ace or King is dangerous.
• Risk only with a clear picture – it adds 10 when it works and costs 10 when it doesn't.

Variants

Scoring details differ between apps and clubs. Agree on them before you start.

• Egyptian tournament scoring: the Egyptian Bridge Federation, which runs official Estimation championships, counts 13 + tricks for an exact estimate instead of 10 + tricks. Bids of 8, 9 or 10 tricks score 41, 42 or 43 if made and cost 20 plus the difference if missed. If all four players pass, the deal is played in no trumps with estimates only, starting with the dealer, and without any bonus.
• One bid each: at some tables everyone bids exactly once, in turn; the highest bid wins.
• Big deals: at some tables every score counts double in a deal where someone estimated 8 or more.
• Void redeal: a player with no cards of a suit may ask for a new deal instead of just saying "avoid".
• Shorter game: play only the 13 bidding deals, or agree on 24 deals as some Egyptian tables do.